Not a bad week of La Liga bets offered last weekend. It wasn’t perfect, but I was pleased with the winning bets offered up in games that I refused to bet on like Espanyol to beat Mallorca or both teams to score in Rayo – Bilbao.
Anyway, this weekend I’ve covered all ten games again for your consideration, so good luck and happy gambling.
Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol
After successive away games against Real Madrid and Mallorca, you might have expected Bilbao to struggle against Rayo in their third successive road game (and 2nd trip to Madrid in a week), but no Athletic – powered by Llorente – won 3-2.
In fact, Llorente scored a hat-trick and has now amassed six goals in his last five games. Certainly, he has to be top pick if you’re looking for a scorer today.
Opponents Espanyol also won last weekend – 1-0 at home to Mallorca – but do not have a fully fit striker of any note and should lose to their Basque opponents today without offering much of a threat going forward.
Of slight concern is the possible tiredness of the Athletic players after playing Espanyol conquerors Mirandes in the cup midweek, but logic says you have to fancy Bilbao at home to a team like Espanyol regardless.
Recommendation: Bilbao (4/5)
Worth a punt: Llorente to score first (4/1)
Levante v Racing Santander
As predicted, Levante lost (2-1) at home to in-form Getafe last weekend. Today they face a Racing side who – through a late goal – salvaged a draw at home to Valencia in their last match.
Today I would expect that, with Levante losing every game I can think of recently, Racing will take at least a point from this tie. Under 2.5 goals seems like the safest bet, but it’s too short priced for my money so a lay of Levante or back of Racing or draw in the double chance market are my recommendations.
Recommendation: Lay Levante @2.3 or bet on double chance- Racing or draw @4/6
Mallorca v Real Betis
Islanders Mallorca lost 1-0 away to Espanyol last time out, but actually could’ve won the game with the chances they created. Back on home soil today, Joaquin Caparros will expect his team to beat a Betis team who lost at home to Granada last weekend.
Betis, however, created enough chances to get something out of their game with Granada and cannot be totally ruled out today. After all, they’ve recently scored in away games at the Nou Camp and Vicente Calderon so why not here where Mallorca have conceded in their last three games?
No argument from your writer – Mallorca have also scored in their last three home games, so although I would pick them to win in the 90 minute market If I had to, both teams to score looks like the best bet overall. A correct score of 2-1 Mallorca sounds about right if you want a bigger priced punt.
Recommendation: Both teams to score (EVS)
Getafe v Real Madrid
Winning away at Levante to remain unbeaten in six games, Barcelona conquerors Getafe face league leaders Real Madrid in a fixture that usually contains a few goals. Last season it ended 3-2 and I correctly predicted the scoreline.
This season there should be more goals, but I haven’t envisioned a correct score and like the look of a bet which has won in the last two meetings between these two at the Alfonso Perez: Both teams to score.
Of course, I’ll probably also do in-play betting on this game so be sure to join me at https://twitter.com/#!/JCLaLiga
Recommendation: Both teams to score (10/11
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
Having the nerve to complain about recent refereeing decisions, Barca their selves were the beneficiaries of bad officiating after cup keeper Pinto clearly handballed outside of his area to deny Valencia’s Soldado a likely goal but was not punished for the incident.
I have to say that I find it laughable when the best teams in any country complain about referring decisions for it is they who benefit from them 9/10. For Spanish football, I’ll save you from a lengthy explanation as to how ref’s are selected, but let’s just say that if you’ve given what are perceived to be bad decisions against Real and Barca, then you’re not likely to referee many of their games in future and won’t therefore likely get to take your career to the highest level by officiating in the Champions league, European Championships or World Cup.
Anyway, with eleven men and considering the better chances they created compared to Valencia – including Messi’s penalty failure – Barca should’ve won at the Mestalla last Thursday evening. Messi’s penalty miss in particular was the most interesting aspect of this argument as he looked like he was trying to get Valencia keeper Alves to commit to an early dive – which he did – but then shot in the same direction Alves had dived early towards and hit it at the height termed ideal for a goalie to save. Head and, to some extent, confidence down for Messi it seems.
In conclusion, Barca are not scoring anywhere close to the amount of goals that they used to and perhaps subconsciously think they can’t catch Real Madrid in the title race. As a result and although they could very well beat Sociedad 4 or 5-0, I’m not going to bet on Barca handicaps or over goal counts today. In fact I’m either going to bet in-play or not at all.
Sporting Gijon v Osasuna
After losing 5-1 away to Sociedad, long serving Sporting manager Manuel Preciado was given his marching orders. Such a pity given his success at a small club like Sporting but perhaps inevitable with results on the pitch rapidly declining and relegation a distinct possibility.
Opponents Osasuna, draw with Valencia aside, have failed to impress recently and lost another home match last Monday night to in-form Atletico Madrid.
In today’s match, I wouldn’t oppose a new manager on home ground and Osasuna are in bad form so the best bet appears to be a lay of Osasuna or backing of double chance – Sporting or draw. However, for punters using regular bookmakers, Sporting or draw is too short priced – as is draw no bet – so a correct score punt could be the ticket for you.
Recommendation: Lay Osasuna at 3.4
Worth a punt correct score:1-0 to Sporting (7/1)
Sevilla v Villarreal
Perhaps unlucky not to have taken a point from their derby game away to Malaga, Sevilla will expect to get back on track when they host the Yellow Submarines today. But will Sevilla win? Well if Villarreal play like they did against Atletico in their last away game, I’d expect them to. However, if Villarreal play like they did at home to Sporting and Barca recently, they have a strong chance of taking something from this game.
Therefore, what seems wisest is to watch, judge and bet in-play.
Real Zaragoza v Rayo Vallecano
Well, Zara did score first before eventually losing 3-1 to Real Madrid, but I wouldn’t read anything into that as it seems to be a regular occurrence for Los Blancos! Rayo also lost their last game (3-2) at home to a Llorente inspired Bilbao.
Honestly, I’m struggling for a recommendation with today’s game. I mean, Rayo are half decent and capable of the odd away upset, while Zara haven’t been as bad as usual since changing coach. Under 2.5 goals seems like a sensible bet, but then that’s too short.
I think that if you choose to bet on this pre- match the best option is to take a chance on Rayo draw no bet at 6/5 as they have more firepower than their hosts.
Atletico Madrid v Valencia
Much credit to Atletico who – without key attacker Diego – won 1-0 away to Osasuna last weekend to continue Diego Simeone’s unbeaten start as Colchoneros coach. Indeed, former Atleti player Simeone’s has implemented a physical, intense type style to his charges and they have enough offensive talent in players like Arda, Falcao and the pre-mentioned Diego to cause any team problems.
Valencia did well in their cup tie against Barca midweek, but once again dropped points in the league when conceding a late equaliser away to Racing last Sunday.
At the Vicente Calderon this evening we could see both teams scoring and the game seems likely to go over 2.5 goals, but what stands out most to me is an Atletico win in the 90 minute market. After all, Valencia play two extra games compared to their hosts – the one they played against Barca on Thursday and the reverse leg next week. Mind elsewhere is it lads..
Recommendation: Atletico (11/10)
Granada v Malaga
Last Sunday lunchtime saw new Granada boss Abel Resino win his first game in charge by virtue of a 2-1 away win at Betis. Certainly Resino’s charges went for the jugular from the off in this game, deserved their 2-0 lead and managed to ward off a late comeback from Betis – A job well done you have to say.
Malaga, helped by questionable officiating, defeated Andalusian rivals Seville (also 2-1) at La Rosaleda hours after the Granada- Betis game had finished. Overall it was a game low on quality, but entertained nonetheless.
Now as for potential bets in today’s game, I wouldn’t go near Malaga away from home as they’ve proved time and time again that they can’t be trusted. Also, I wouldn’t oppose a new boss in his first home game as a principle.
Quite honestly, I’m undecided on which bet to take in this game (i was going to do both teams to score) so we’ll see how the weekend goes and i’ll make a firm judgement via twitter on Monday.
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