First off, apologies I couldn’t get anything done for Saturday’s games on the Forza Futbol website. It’s been a busy week for me in the day job and every night has contained heavy football gambling, most of which I’ve been doing my best to advise on via twitter.
Anyway, there are five games today and my thoughts on each are listed beneath. If you choose to follow, don’t bet big stakes as Saturday threw up some strange results, but good luck nonetheless.
Atletico Madrid v Villarreal
I’ll be awake but half asleep when this is on at noon, for it is nearly 5am on Sunday morning as I write this! This is also the last betting preview I’m penning so let’s get to it. These sort of clashes generally used to contain a few goals and could be relied upon for entertainment value.
Nowadays, though, this could as easily be 0-0 as it could 2-2 and bets like both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are too risky. For example, look at last night’s clash between Sevilla and Espanyol; their clashes always went over 2.5 goals in recent years, both teams had scored in each of Espanyol’s last five games (home and away) and the same bet had won in four of Sevilla’s last five home matches. The game finished 0-0.
Many will expect former player and new Atletico boss Simeone to get his first win today, but Villarreal looked re-vitalised at home to Valencia last weekend and i’d rather chance laying than backing Atletico at 1.7.
In making the straight pick for this game I’ve considered the following: Atletico are usually decent at home and Villarreal are very poor away. However, both teams have new mangers and both drew their respective games last weekend. Given this, I’m going to chance it that both managers remain unbeaten and the spoils are shared.
Worth a punt: Draw at 29/10.
Osasuna v Racing Santander
Securing a draw away to in-form Sociedad as predicted last weekend, Osasuna should take all three points against fourth bottom Racing today, and that’s exactly what I’m going to bet on.
A pity Osasuna lost to Barca in the Copa second leg midweek, but a lot of their players were rested for that game and will therefore be fresh and ready to protect Osasuna’s unbeaten home record in the league this season.
Recommendation: Osasuna (5/6)
Athletic Bilbao v Levante
Both teams hammered their respective opponents in the Copa del Rey midweek, with Athletic’s demolition of Albacete the only one available to me to watch live on TV. But what a game it was. Every goal was top draw, with Toquero’s back heel the most pleasing to my eyes.
Of course, Bilbao often make hard work of games like this and that Copa game aside, have not impressed recently. Target man Llorente is back, but was subbed in said cup game and will need time to get back on form.
In conclusion and despite the above, I like a home win here – simple as that.
Recommendation: Bilbao (4/6)
Sporting Gijon v Malaga
Truth is that I’m not sure who to back in this one. It sounds like a low scoring game, but under 2.5 goals is very short priced at 4/7 and this could be one of those strange games in which the opposite to what you expect happens.
I’d like to back Malaga as Sporting have lost three of their last four league games, but without checking statistics the Anchovies have been very poor on the road this season and I cannot therefore trust them.
Perhaps this will end in draw, maybe I’ll get tempted into a small bet on Malaga to lead at half time in-play. Either way I’m only betting in-play.
Recommendation: Follow me at https://twitter.com/#!/JCLaLiga for an in-play judgement!
Barcelona v Real Betis
While Espanyol deserve credit for holding Barca to a draw last weekend, Pep’s boys really should have killed the game off. Only when their cross City rivals drew level did they move through the gears, speed the play up and show forceful intent to score again.
Barca probably should have had a penalty in the dying moments, but why not play like they did in the last five minutes earlier and ensure all three points. Perhaps, injuries aside, they are just content to win now – do the minimum away and win by three or four at home.
Against Betis today, whom they beat 5-0 here in the cup last season, Barca should put their opponents to the sword. After all, the Betis manger, Pepe Mel, was quoted as saying that his side had won three in a row and could afford to relax in this game.
Such words make you wonder if Betis will field a weakened team and lie down. As a long term fan of the club who used to adore watching Alfonso Perez play in the mid 90’s, I sincerely hope they don’t.
Barca their selves have had to call up players from the B team due to having injury problems, but they should still field a strong starting eleven, even if the Copa first leg Clasico looms.
The Barca socio’s will expect a convincing performance today and it’s been a while since we saw a five nil, so i’ll take a small punt on that.
Worth a small punt: Correct score of Barca 5 Betis 0 (best priced at 9/1)
La Liga News 24/7
