Sadly week 17 offers the last Primera action we will see for three weeks, but I think that there are some good bets on offer within it.
Last weekend I offered up four pre-match bets, only one of which won. However, the week before I was perfect and it’s all about the long term in football gambling. Besides, even though he didn’t score in the Clasico, I’d bet on Messi anytime again at 11/8 for it is value in gambling terms.
Anyway, be sure to follow me on twitter @JCLaLiga for my bets on the other football matches in major European leagues.
Good luck and (delete as applicable) Happy Christmas/Holidays
JC
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Often a ground in which Real struggle at and always a fiery affair, the best bet here appears to be a sending off. After all, Sevilla are a dirty team and Real, reeling from their Clasico defeat and non performance from Ronaldo in that game, will get more and more frustrated the longer it takes them to score. Also, if Real were to score a few quick goals (unlikely), Sevilla’s frustration should boil over in the second half if they can’t score.
Other factors include me tipping a red card last season (there was one) and, of course, the expected presence of Pepe…
Recommendation: Red card/sending off (6/4 best current price)
Atletico Madrid v Real Betis
Proving once again that they can’t be trusted against anybody away from home, Atletico got spanked 4-2 at a Javi Marquez less Espanyol last Sunday. Interstingly, without Marquez Espanyol had a 0% win rate so far this season. Atletico eh, glad I don’t support them.
I do, however, love Real Betis but think that they’ll struggle to win here. I mean anybody can beat Atletico (and I mean anybody), but at the Vicente Calderon they generally do what they are supposed to and win comfortably.
Anyway, one favours a goals bet here. Why? Well, the last few lunchtime clashes have ended with over 3.5 match goals so I’m expecting history to repeat itself one more. Over 2.5 should be safer bet, and it must be considered that Los Colchoneros played (and beat) Rennes in the Europa on Thursday night, but I’m going to be a bit greedier.
Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals (2/1 best current price)
Granada v Levante
Without going into any analysis at all, this sounds like an ideal opportunity to chance a small stake on a 0-0 outcome. Under 2.5 goals also seems sensible, but it’s very short priced at 4/7.
Worth a punt: 0-0 correct score (8/1 best current price)
Osasuna v Villarreal,
Can Villarreal score here? Maybe, but I’m not prepared to chance a both teams to score bet without doing any proper research on past meetings (none come to mind) and team news, so I’m just going to bet on what seems sensible for now – an Osasuna win.
Recommendation: Osasuna (6/5 best current price)
Valencia v Malaga
They looked certain to win 1-0 away to Betis last weekend until Ruben Castro struck two late goals (thank you Ruben, you made me some money there!), but Valencia ultimately lost and you must now wonder if their Champions League defeat at Chelsea has affected their confidence.
Of course, subconsciously or otherwise, it has to a little – certainly defensively. For that reason and coupled with the fact that Malaga have scored six goals in their last three away games (league and cup), I’m going with both teams to score.
Recommendation: Both teams to score (3/4 best current price)
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