…and there is no place to hide.
It was the 3rdof May; Real Madrid just got eliminated from the Champions League in the semifinals by Barcelona. That game also brought an end to a tumultuous 18 days for the fans of Madrid and Barcelona in particular and the fans of football worldwide in general. A series of four clasicos in a span of just 18 days. It has never happened before. Judging by the tension, unsportsmanlike behavior from players on each side, coaches sniping at each other with verbal volleys and so forth, many a fan wished it never happen again. It was gripping drama that took so much out of the players and fans. It was the theater that showcased some of the best and the worst faces of all those involved. Despite all the negativity (that bordered on nasty at times) that permeated the days in the buildup to the games and the immediate aftermath of them, there was no doubt that the world was watching. It felt like one of those reality shows where you knew what was coming but still wanted to watch it anyway for the evil pleasure.
If you thought you had seen it all, fast forward 3 months to August and we are less than a week away from another Clasico. Madrid and Barcelona will resume their rivalry over two legs for the Spanish Super Cup on August 14th at the Bernabeu and August 17th at the Camp Nou. That’s two more clasicos in a span of 4 days. These games can’t come soon enough for hardcore fans. The neutrals are probably grumbling that they have to endure the blanket coverage and all the negativity that is associated with them. Yet, everyone will watch them because Real Madrid and Barcelona are arguably the two best football teams on the planet.
New signings
Both Real Madrid and Barcelona were involved in protracted transfer sagas this summer. Depending on who you talk to, Real Madrid have either missed out on Kun Aguero or it is a smart non-signing. The case of Neymar is a bit more complicated as the player and his current club have been sending mixed signals about when and if the player would move to Real Madrid. The latest on this is that Neymar will join Real Madrid in December after playing the Club World Cup with Santos. Apart from Neymar, Real Madrid have strengthened their side with Portuguese winger/left-back Fabio Coentrão from Benfica, Turkish midfielder Nuri Sahin from Borussia Dortmund and the young French defender Varane from RC Lens. They have also got Hamit Altinop for ‘free’ in the Nuri Sahin deal, who came in injured and after a undergoing a fairly complex back surgery will be about for at least 3-4 months of the season. Bizarre story, but anything is possible in the parallel world of football player market controlled by a few powerful and unscrupulous agents. Making way for them are Sergio Canales (loaned to Valencia), Ezequiel Garay (sold 50% to Benfica) and the impending departures Royston Drenthe, Pedro Leon and Lass. There is also a big question mark on the role of Kaka in this new Madrid but that topic deserves an article of its own. There is also the talk of Mourinho wanting to re-sign Emanuel Adebayor before the end of the transfer deadline.
All in all Real Madrid have strengthened their squad. There are more players that Mourinho can ‘count on’ than last year when he still had to do with mostly signings from a previous regime.
If Real Madrid’s transfer season has been protracted, Barcelona’s is worse. The new regime of austerity ushered in by president Sandro Rosell meant the negotiations for even the smallest of the pickups like signing a player for Barcelona B have taken forever. They signed Chilean winger/forward Alexis Sanchez from Udinese after more than a month of negotiations in a very complex deal laden with incentives. And then there is the soap opera of Cesc Fabregas. It feels like this has been running longer than Baywatch or Santa Barbara.
This issue can be explained in 3 simple sentences.
- The player wants to go to Barcelona.
- Barcelona wants to get him but not at any price.
- Arsenal are willing to sell but not at any price.
There hasn’t been a significant change in the positions of any of them for the past 3 years. A poster child of how and why negotiations fail. The United Nations must be proud of how they are trying to not find a solution here. Of all three, the player probably is the least to blame and Barcelona the most. But sadly, the worst affected by the impasse are the player and Arsenal respectively.
Jeffren (sold to Sporting Lisbon), Bojan (loaned to AS Roma), Gaby Milito (let go on a free to Independiente, Argentina) are the players who have departed the team.
While Barça have upgraded their forward line with the addition of Alexis Sanchez, they have done precious little to shore up their defence. But since they tend to dip into their ‘cantera’ (youth system), they might be ok but there is no doubt they have a thinner squad and lesser margin for injury compared to Real Madrid.
Preseason
Real Madrid have taken their preseason very seriously. They have won all the 7 preseason games and scored 27 goals in all. Benzema and Ronaldo are in mid-season form along with Mesut Özil. Fabio Coentrão seems to have gelled with the team quickly and could force either Marcelo or Di Maria out of the starting lineup very soon. One of the few sour notes are the injuries to Sahin, who injured one of his knee on the first day of training and when he was finally ready to play a preseason game last week in China, he injured his other knee. The lackluster displays from Kaka are a cause for concern too. Since he doesn’t have a starting spot anymore, Madrid would probably like to loan/sell him but suitors balk at his high wages.
In contrast, Barcelona’s preseason hasn’t been as smooth. They started the training camp one week later than Real Madrid, probably due to the fact that they played in the final of the Champions League. To make matters more complicated some of their main players like Messi, Alves and Alexis were involved in the Copa America and haven’t taken part in any of the preseason games. They have lost a couple of preseason games and drawn a couple more. All this makes it even harder to gauge their level at this point. Thiago Alcantara was by far their best player in the preseason. But it is evident that they are not at the same level of fitness or rhythm as Real Madrid are. The part about rhythm is very important because if any team needs to have their timing and rhythm going for playing well, it is Barcelona. Their short and triangular passing to move the ball up the field is predicated on timing.
The Games
While Real Madrid seems to have their starting lineup almost decided barring injury, it will be interesting to see if Guardiola will start the likes of Messi or Alves who haven’t played a minute in preseason. The key to the first leg will be the approach of Real Madrid and the tactics of Mourinho. If he chooses to play cautiously as he did in the first leg of Champions League last year, he will play right into the hands of Barça. I believe Mourinho should go for the throat in the 1st leg as Barcelona will come in rusty and might need a game or two to warm up, especially someone like Messi. I would like to see the Real Madrid of Copa del Rey final. Barcelona would be happy with draw in this game.
Lineup highlights: Neither Messi nor Alves will start; Thiago will start in place of Messi. Coentrão will start in midfield in place of Di Maria.
1st leg Prediction: 2-0 Real Madrid.
The 2nd leg will be conditioned by the result of the 1st leg. If Real Madrid comes in with an advantage, they might lineup very defensively and try to nick a goal on the counter. Since I predicted a Madrid win in the 1st leg, I expect Barcelona to be much closer to their 100% but I doubt they will be able to overturn a margin greater than 1 goal.
Lineup highlights: Messi and Alves will start. Alexis will get his first minutes. Coentrão will start again ahead of Di Maria for Real Madrid.
2nd leg Prediction: 2-1 Barcelona.
Conclusion
Real Madrid will lift the Super Cup
Who ever wins, will claim it as a moral victory and emphasize the positive impact it will have on the upcoming season. The loser will try to brush it aside as little more than a glorified preseason tourney. The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
Drama and excitement are assured. Hopefully the teams will tone down the negativity and the nastiness a few notches.
For more content about the transfers and the Spanish summer, check this out.
First Leg @ Bernabeu 4pm Eastern 1pm Pacific ESPN3.com & ESPNDeportes
Second Leg @ Camp Nou 5pm Eastern 2pm Pacific ESPN3.com & ESPNDeportes
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